摘 要:农业是国民经济的基础，又是典型的弱质产业，面临着自然与经济双重风险，既容易受到各种自然因素的影响，又容易遭受价格波动的影响。作为世界上的一个农业大国，我国的农业自然灾害也最为严重，具体表现在：我国农业灾害的种类非常多、农业灾害发生的频度很高、灾害波及的范围很广、而且给广大农户乃至国家造成的经济损失也非常大。农业自然灾害过后，一方面很多农民都不得不面对巨大的经济损失，另一方面那些进行大规模农业投资和承包的农民也不敢进一步扩大生产规模。因此，为广大农户建立起一种有效的防范农业风险和补偿风险损失的机制就显得十分必要，而农业保险正是这一机制的核心组成部分。国务院于2012年10月24日审议并通过了《农业保险条例》，并于2013年3月1日起施行，该条例填补了我国法律体系中长期空白的农业保险领域，对我国农业保险的发展具有重要的意义，表明国家对农业的发展地位越来越重视。

　　　安徽省处于我国中部，境内有长江和淮河，是一个名副其实的农业大省。自2008年被国家财政部确定为政策性农业保险财政补贴试点省份以来，安徽省的政策性农业保险经历了5年的逐步开展。在这5年农业保险工作的开展中，安徽省的农业保险一方面同样体现出其他省份农业保险发展中存在问题，但另一方面又表现出其自身的特殊性。本文即以农业保险及其影响因素为主要研究内容，在系统地了解农业保险的相关概念、理论基础、发展现状后，在国内外已有的研究成果基础上，通过对安徽省繁昌县的农户进行抽样实地调查，研究分析影响农户农业保险需求的因素。最终达到为安徽省繁昌县农业保险的普及和实施以及安徽省乃至全国范围内的农业保险政策提出一些合理化建议的目标。

关键词：农业保险；需求；logistic模型；安徽省

ABSTRACT:Agriculture is the foundation of the national economy and also a typically weak industry.Facing both natural and economic risk,agriculture is easily effected by various natural factors and the fluctuations of crop price.As a big agricultural country, China is also one of the countries that have been sufferring the most serious natural disasters,varying in many kinds and with high frequency, wide distribution and causing great losses. Natural agricultural risk not only makes many farmers suffered huge economic losses, but also makes those who are engaged in large scale planting and breeding production dare not to enlarge the scale of agricultural production and investment. Therefore, It is very necessary to establish the agricultural risk prevention and risk loss compensation mechanism,which are based on the priority of the development of agricultural insurance. On October 24, 2012, the state council examined and approved "the agricultural insurance ordinance",which having been carried into effect since March 1, 2013 is an important supplement to the field of agricultural insurance law.It reflects the emphasis on agricultural development in our country and has vital significance to the development of agricultural insurance in our country.

    Located in the junction of north and south, Anhui province was formally identified as one of the policy-related agricultural insurance subsidies pilot provinces by the ministry of finance in 2008. there are two river basin in Anhui province, the Yangtze river and huaihe river .As a veritable big agriculture province in China,Anhui province has it's own particularity in the development of agricultural insurance in the last five years.Focused on agriculture insurance and its influencing factors,This article will systematically analyse the relevant concepts ,the theoretical basis and the development status quo of agricultural insurance.Based on the existing research results at home and abroad, the author will analyse those factors which have remarkable effects on farmers' demand of agricultural insurance through field sampling survey among farmers living in FanChang, anhui province. The ultimate goal is to put forward some rationalization proposal about the popularization and implementation of the agricultural insurance in FanChang,anhui province and the agricultural insurance policy in anhui province and even throughout the country.

Keywords: agriculture insurance；demand；Logistic model；Anhui Province