摘要:随着改革开放的脚步我国经济飞速发展，房地产行业也迅速崛起，房地产项目投资的高收益性展现在人们面前，但是高收益就意味着高风险，为了让更多的投资者理性投资，及时有效地防范风险，对房地产项目的投资风险进行研究是十分必要的。

　　　本文从房地产投资特点出发，探寻房地产投资中存在的风险。应用专家调查法中的德尔菲法识别中润世纪城三期三角地项目的投资风险，并应用层次分析法将该项目中的投资风险层次化，对该项目的投资风险进行定量的计算，根据权重排序得出不同风险因素对该项目投资的影响程度，在此基础上利用模糊综合评价法对中润世纪城三期三角地项目的投资风险度进行评价，得出该项目的投资风险等级。根据该项目风险等级有针对性地提出投资风险防范措施，以期加强房地产企业的抗风险能力，提高企业盈利水平。

关键词 投资风险；模糊综合评价；风险防范

Abstract：As the pace of reform and opening in China and rapid economic development, real estate industry also rapidly emerging. High profitability of investment of real estate project is showing in front of people, but high yield means high risk. In order to let more investors can invest rationally and against risks in a timely, the study of real estate project investment risk is necessary.

　　　This article is from the characteristics of real estate investment and explore the risk which  exist in the real estate investment. Application of Delphi method in the expert investigation method to identify the embellish century city phase 3 triangle of project investment risk. Application of analytic hierarchy process (ahp) to the project investment risk in the hierarchy. Calculation of the project investment risk quantitatively. According to the different weight sorting and the influence degree of the risk factors for the project investment. On the basis of analytic hierarchy process (ahp) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to embellish century city in three periods of triangle project investment risk evaluation. The project investment risk level are obtained. According to the project risk grade targeted investment risk prevention strategy is put forward. The purpose is to strengthen the anti-risk ability of the real estate enterprises and improve the level of corporate profits.

Keywords  investment risk  fuzzy comprehensive evaluation  risk prevention

　　　房地产项目投资与一般投资不一样，具有金额高、周期长和不可移动等特征，是一项投入高、收益大的活动，同时大量的不稳定性因素使房地产投资又具有风险高的特征。

　　　首先，在国内参与房地产项目投资的不乏存在这个领域的专家，但是更多的是一些因追求高收益而来的跟风者，对房地产投资中存在的风险是一知半解，在房地产项目投资决策时期，绝大多数决策者只是凭借主观经验对项目风险进行了一些简单粗略的分析，一般情况下很少会进行较为系统专业的风险综合分析评价或者采取科学的定量分析方法对投资风险进行评估，盲目投资往往使很多房地产项目投资失败；其次，房地产投资是一项金额巨大的活动，且投资回收期较长，一旦投资失败就会造成损失惨重，为了让更多的投资者理性投资并且能对房地产投资中的潜在风险因素积极防范，我们对房地产项目的投资风险进行系统的研究是势在必行的。